Table 3 Performance of the PROLOGUE score at different cut-off points
Cut-off (predicted probability of poor outcome) | ≥ 0.1 | ≥ 0.2 | ≥ 0.3 | ≥ 0.4 | ≥ 0.5 | ≥ 0.6 | ≥ 0.7 | ≥ 0.8 | ≥ 0.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A: Neurological outcome at hospital discharge | |||||||||
Total number of patients, n | 618 | 546 | 476 | 412 | 343 | 273 | 206 | 136 | 68 |
CPC 1–2, n (%) | 260 (42.1) | 196 (35.9) | 149 (31.3) | 114 (27.7) | 78 (22.7) | 44 (16.1) | 26 (12.6) | 10 (7.4) | 3 (4.4) |
CPC 3–5, n (%) | 358 (57.9) | 350 (64.1) | 327 (68.7) | 298 (72.3) | 265 (77.3) | 229 (83.9) | 180 (87.4) | 126 (92.6) | 65 (95.6) |
Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 97.8 (95.7–99.1) | 95.6 (93.0–97.5) | 89.3 (85.7–92.3) | 81.4 (77.1–85.3) | 72.4 (67.5–76.9) | 62.6 (57.4–67.5) | 49.2 (43.9–54.4) | 34.4 (29.6–39.5) | 17.8 (14.0–22.1) |
Specificity, % (95% CI) | 19.0 (14.9–23.7) | 38.9 (33.6–44.5) | 53.6 (48.0–59.1) | 64.5 (59.0–69.7) | 75.7 (70.6–80.3) | 86.3 (82.0–89.9) | 91.9 (88.4–94.6) | 96.9 (94.3–98.5) | 99.1 (97.3–99.8) |
PPV, % (95% CI) | 57.9 (53.9–61.9) | 64.1 (59.9–68.1) | 68.7 (64.3–72.8) | 72.3 (67.7–76.6) | 77.3 (72.5–81.6) | 83.9 (79.0–88.0) | 87.4 (82.1–91.6) | 92.6 (86.9–96.4) | 95.6 (87.6–99.1) |
NPV, % (95% CI) | 88.4 (78.4–94.9) | 88.7 (82.2–93.4) | 81.5 (75.6–86.5) | 75.3 (69.7–80.3) | 70.6 (65.5–75.4) | 66.9 (62.1–71.4) | 61.3 (56.8–65.7) | 56.4 (52.2–60.6) | 51.4 (47.4–55.4) |
Cut-off (predicted probability of death) | ≥ 0.1 | ≥ 0.2 | ≥ 0.3 | ≥ 0.4 | ≥ 0.5 | ≥ 0.6 | ≥ 0.7 | ≥ 0.8 | ≥ 0.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B: Mortality at hospital discharge | |||||||||
Total number of patients, n | 618 | 546 | 476 | 412 | 343 | 273 | 206 | 136 | 68 |
Survivors, n (%) | 324 (52.4) | 258 (47.3) | 199 (41.8) | 152 (36.9) | 105 (30.6) | 65 (23.8) | 40 (19.4) | 18 (13.2) | 5 (7.4) |
Non-survivors, n (%) | 294 (47.6) | 288 (52.7) | 277 (58.2) | 260 (63.1) | 238 (69.4) | 208 (76.2) | 166 (80.6) | 118 (86.8) | 63 (92.6) |
Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 99.0 (97.1–99.8) | 97.0 (94.3–98.6) | 93.3 (89.8–95.8) | 87.5 (83.2–91.1) | 80.1 (75.1–84.5) | 70.0 (64.5–75.2) | 55.9 (50.0–61.6) | 39.7 (34.1–45.5) | 21.2 (16.7–26.3) |
Specificity, % (95% CI) | 16.9 (13.3–21.0) | 33.8 (29.2–38.8) | 49.0 (43.9–54.1) | 61.0 (56.0–65.9) | 73.1 (68.4–77.4) | 83.3 (79.3–86.9) | 89.7 (86.3–92.6) | 95.4 (92.8–97.2) | 98.7 (97.0–99.6) |
PPV, % (95% CI) | 47.6 (43.6–51.6) | 52.7 (48.5–57.0) | 58.2 (53.6–62.7) | 63.1 (58.2–67.8) | 69.4 (64.2–74.2) | 76.2 (70.7–81.1) | 80.6 (74.5–85.8) | 86.8 (79.9–92.0) | 92.6 (83.7–97.6) |
NPV, % (95% CI) | 95.7 (87.8–99.1) | 93.6 (88.2–97.0) | 90.5 (85.7–94.1) | 86.5 (81.9–90.3) | 82.8 (78.4–86.7) | 78.5 (74.2–82.4) | 72.8 (68.6–76.7) | 67.5 (63.4–71.4) | 62.2 (58.2–66.0) |