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Table 3 Model performance for ICISS to predict ICU admission, linked hospitalisation and mortality data, NSW, 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2014

From: Identification and internal validation of models for predicting survival and ICU admission following a traumatic injury

  Multiplicative-injury ICISS Single worst-injury ICISS
ICU admission1 Bootstrap-adjusted AIC (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted R2 (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted H-L statistic (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted concordance (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted AIC (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted R2 (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted H-L statistic (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted concordance (95% CI)
Model 1: Age group, gender 175,710 (173,800, 177,367) 0.161 (0.156, 0.164) 1267 (1134, 1391) 0.763 (0.759, 0.766) 183,437 (181,589, 185,142) 0.119 (0.115, 0.123) 1007 (892, 1121) 0.745 (0.741, 0.748)
Model 2: Age group, gender, CCI group 173,093 (171,178, 174,762) 0.175 (0.170, 0.179) 560 (468, 652) 0.777 (0.773, 0.780) 181,083 (179,267, 182,822) 0.132 (0.127, 0.135) 520 (427, 605) 0.759 (0.756, 0.763)
Model 3: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol 169,268 (167,500, 170,857) 0.195 (0.190, 0.199) 1083 (959, 1210) 0.809 (0.806, 0.812) 177,355 (175,605, 178,961) 0.152 (0.147, 0.156) 1333 (1170, 1495) 0.793 (0.790, 0.796)
Model 4: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism 162,265 (160,406, 163,818) 0.232 (0.228, 0.237) 809 (707, 897) 0.841 (0.839, 0.844) 171,083 (169,292, 172,649) 0.185 (0.182, 0.190) 619 (541, 699) 0.824 (0.822, 0.826)
Model 5: Age group, gender, CCI group, nature 160,529 (158,753, 162,033) 0.241 (0.237, 0.246) 589 (512, 661) 0.849 (0.847, 0.852) 168,908 (167,072, 170,450) 0.197 (0.193, 0.201) 617 (538, 698) 0.833 (0.830, 0.835)
Model 6: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, nature 158,863 (157,039, 160,357) 0.250 (0.246, 0.255) 555 (468, 632) 0.855 (0.852, 0.857) 166,481 (164,735, 168,032) 0.210 (0.206, 0.214) 366 (301, 436) 0.839 (0.837, 0.842)
Model 7: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol, mechanism, nature 158,474 (156,669, 159,970) 0.252 (0.248, 0.257) 572 (489, 650) 0.856 (0.854, 0.859) 165,988 (164,216, 167,490) 0.213 (0.209, 0.217) 421 (356, 492) 0.841 (0.839, 0.844)
  1. aCCI group Charlson Comorbidity Index, mental health mental health conditions, alcohol alcohol misuse and dependence, drug drug-related dependence, mechanism injury mechanism, nature nature of injury