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Table 2 Model performance for ICISS to predict 90-day mortality, linked hospitalisation and mortality data, NSW, 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2014

From: Identification and internal validation of models for predicting survival and ICU admission following a traumatic injury

  Multiplicative-injury ICISS Single worst-injury ICISS
90-day mortalitya Bootstrap-adjusted AIC (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted R2 (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted H-L statistic (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted concordance (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted AIC (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted R2 (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted H-L statistic (95% CI) Bootstrap-adjusted concordance (95% CI)
Model 1: Age group, gender 104,572 (103,114, 105,888) 0.252 (0.247, 0.257) 196 (153, 235) 0.886 (0.884, 0.889) 102,256 (100,846, 103,599) 0.270 (0.265, 0.274) 134 (100, 170) 0.894 (0.892, 0.897)
Model 2: Age group, gender, CCI group 98,219 (96,972, 99,362) 0.301 (0.296, 0.306) 346 (291, 402) 0.911 (0.909, 0.914) 96,245 (95,034, 97,475) 0.316 (0.311, 0.321) 325 (267, 371) 0.917 (0.915, 0.919)
Model 3: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol 98,187 (96,932, 99,334) 0.301 (0.296, 0.306) 392 (332, 451) 0.912 (0.910, 0.914) 96,202 (94,981, 97,447) 0.316 (0.311, 0.321) 347 (287, 393) 0.918 (0.916, 0.920)
Model 4: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol, trauma centre 97,792 (96,515, 98,917) 0.304 (0.299, 0.309) 235 (186, 280) 0.912 (0.910, 0.914) 95,847 (94,601, 97,061) 0.319 (0.314, 0.324) 272 (223, 319) 0.918 (0.916, 0.920)
Model 5: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, nature 96,731 (95,506, 97,865) 0.312 (0.308, 0.317) 315 (244, 370) 0.917 (0.915, 0.919) 95,263 (94,046, 96,449) 0.324 (0.319, 0.328) 304 (248, 356) 0.921 (0.920, 0.923)
Model 6: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, trauma centre 96,513 (95,269, 97,631) 0.314 (0.309, 0.319) 281 (222, 337) 0.917 (0.915, 0.919) 94,941 (93,717, 96,108) 0.326 (0.321, 0.331) 266 (213, 309) 0.921 (0.920, 0.923)
Model 7: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, nature, trauma centre 96,335 (95,099, 97,481) 0.315 (0.311, 0.320) 273 (214, 323) 0.917 (0.916, 0.919) 94,899 (93,679, 96,040) 0.326 (0.322, 0.331) 268 (222, 314) 0.922 (0.920, 0.923)
Model 8: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol, mechanism, nature, trauma centre 96,335 (95,092, 97,472) 0.316 (0.311, 0.320) 275 (221, 323) 0.917 (0.916, 0.919) 94,904 (93,684, 96,044) 0.326 (0.322, 0.331) 273 (229, 317) 0.922 (0.920, 0.923)
  1. aCCI group Charlson Comorbidity Index, mental health mental health conditions, alcohol alcohol misuse and dependence, drug drug-related dependence, mechanism injury mechanism, nature nature of injury