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Table 2 Model performance for ICISS to predict 90-day mortality, linked hospitalisation and mortality data, NSW, 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2014

From: Identification and internal validation of models for predicting survival and ICU admission following a traumatic injury

 

Multiplicative-injury ICISS

Single worst-injury ICISS

90-day mortalitya

Bootstrap-adjusted AIC (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted R2 (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted H-L statistic (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted concordance (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted AIC (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted R2 (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted H-L statistic (95% CI)

Bootstrap-adjusted concordance (95% CI)

Model 1: Age group, gender

104,572 (103,114, 105,888)

0.252 (0.247, 0.257)

196 (153, 235)

0.886 (0.884, 0.889)

102,256 (100,846, 103,599)

0.270 (0.265, 0.274)

134 (100, 170)

0.894 (0.892, 0.897)

Model 2: Age group, gender, CCI group

98,219 (96,972, 99,362)

0.301 (0.296, 0.306)

346 (291, 402)

0.911 (0.909, 0.914)

96,245 (95,034, 97,475)

0.316 (0.311, 0.321)

325 (267, 371)

0.917 (0.915, 0.919)

Model 3: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol

98,187 (96,932, 99,334)

0.301 (0.296, 0.306)

392 (332, 451)

0.912 (0.910, 0.914)

96,202 (94,981, 97,447)

0.316 (0.311, 0.321)

347 (287, 393)

0.918 (0.916, 0.920)

Model 4: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol, trauma centre

97,792 (96,515, 98,917)

0.304 (0.299, 0.309)

235 (186, 280)

0.912 (0.910, 0.914)

95,847 (94,601, 97,061)

0.319 (0.314, 0.324)

272 (223, 319)

0.918 (0.916, 0.920)

Model 5: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, nature

96,731 (95,506, 97,865)

0.312 (0.308, 0.317)

315 (244, 370)

0.917 (0.915, 0.919)

95,263 (94,046, 96,449)

0.324 (0.319, 0.328)

304 (248, 356)

0.921 (0.920, 0.923)

Model 6: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, trauma centre

96,513 (95,269, 97,631)

0.314 (0.309, 0.319)

281 (222, 337)

0.917 (0.915, 0.919)

94,941 (93,717, 96,108)

0.326 (0.321, 0.331)

266 (213, 309)

0.921 (0.920, 0.923)

Model 7: Age group, gender, CCI group, mechanism, nature, trauma centre

96,335 (95,099, 97,481)

0.315 (0.311, 0.320)

273 (214, 323)

0.917 (0.916, 0.919)

94,899 (93,679, 96,040)

0.326 (0.322, 0.331)

268 (222, 314)

0.922 (0.920, 0.923)

Model 8: Age group, gender, CCI group, mental health, drug, alcohol, mechanism, nature, trauma centre

96,335 (95,092, 97,472)

0.316 (0.311, 0.320)

275 (221, 323)

0.917 (0.916, 0.919)

94,904 (93,684, 96,044)

0.326 (0.322, 0.331)

273 (229, 317)

0.922 (0.920, 0.923)

  1. aCCI group Charlson Comorbidity Index, mental health mental health conditions, alcohol alcohol misuse and dependence, drug drug-related dependence, mechanism injury mechanism, nature nature of injury
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Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine

ISSN: 1757-7241