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Table 4 Logistic regression models for deterioration within 72 h from admission based on repeated vital sign measurements with a 30-min interval during the first 3 h of ED admission

From: Repeated vital sign measurements in the emergency department predict patient deterioration within 72 hours: a prospective observational study

  Sig. Odds Ratio (95% CI) Model statistics
Cox & Snell R2 AUC (95% CI) N a
Base model for deterioration within 72 h from admission .080 .679 (.619; .739) 359 (100%)
 Age .012* 1.022 (1.005; 1.039)    
 Gender (0 = male, 1 = female) .502 0.839 (0.502; 1.402)    
 Cardiac disease .158 1.544 (0.845; 2.820)    
 COPD .159 1.906 (0.777; 4.676)    
 Diabetes .035* 1.902 (1.048; 3.454)    
 Chronic kidney disease .308 1.475 (0.699; 3.111)    
 Chronic liver disease .345 1.493 (0.650; 3.429)    
 Organ transplant .245 1.408 (0.791; 2.509)    
 Malignancy .450 0.807 (0.463; 1.407)    
Base model with heart rate
 HR-M1. Heart rate at admission .042* 1.013 (1.000; 1.025) .091 .683 (.623; .742) 359 (100%)
 HR-M2. Heart rate at admission .035* 1.015 (1.001; 1.030) .091 .684 (.624; .743) 358 (99.7%)
Heart rate change .463 1.039 (0.938; 1.151)    
 HR-M3. Heart rate at admission .062 1.013 (0.999; 1.027) .091 .683 (.624; .743) 359 (100%)
Heart rate variability .884 0.998 (0.977; 1.021)    
Base model with mean arterial pressure
 MAP-M1. MAP at admission <.001* 0.955 (0.937; 0.972) .156 .746 (.688; .804) 357 (99.4%)
 MAP-M2. MAP at admission <.001* 0.940 (0.920; 0.961) .176 .758 (.701; .815) 355 (98.9%)
MAP change .003* 0.873 (0.798; 0.954)    
 MAP-M3. MAP at admission <.001* 0.941 (0.922; 0.960) .223 .800 (.750; .850) 357 (99.4%)
MAP variability <.001* 1.060 (1.037; 1.084)    
Base model with respiratory rate
 RR-M1. Respiratory rate at admission .042* 1.048 (1.002; 1.097) .075 .663 (.592; .735) b 267 (74.4%)
 RR-M2. Respiratory rate at admission .004* 1.086 (1.027; 1.148) .096 .686 (.617; .755) b 242 (67.4%)
Respiratory rate change .018* 1.441 (1.063; 1.952)    
 RR-M3. Respiratory rate at admission .144 1.022 (0.988; 1.071) .087 .676 (.605; .746) b 267 (74.4%)
Respiratory rate variability .063 1.067 (0.996; 1.142)    
Base model with body temperature
 BT-M1. Body temperature at admission .607 1.059 (0.845; 1.319) .083 .680 (.619; .741) 355 (98.9%)
 BT-M2. Body temperature at admission .880 1.020 (0.786; 1.324) .080 .681 (.619; .743) 342 (95.3%)
Body temperature change .677 0.720 (0.153; 3.385)    
 BT-M3. Body temperature at admission .962 0.994 (0.790; 1.252) .090 .683 (.622; .745) 355 (98.9%)
Body temperature variability .097 1.389 (0.942; 2.049)    
  1. AUC: area under the receiver operating curve; CI: confidence interval; COPD: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; HR: Heart rate, MAP: mean arterial pressure; RR: respiratory rate; BT: body temperature; Sig.: statistical significance; * significant result (p < 0.05)
  2. aMissing or observations that were constant within the measured time period are excluded from the regression model; b the AUC of the base model only including patients with respiratory rate at admission was .638