Repeated vital sign measurements in the emergency department predict patient deterioration within 72 hours: a prospective observational study

Quinten, Vincent M.; van Meurs, Matijs; Olgers, Tycho J.; Vonk, Judith M.; Ligtenberg, Jack J. M.; ter Maaten, Jan C.

doi:10.1186/s13049-018-0525-y

Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine

Table 4 Logistic regression models for deterioration within 72 h from admission based on repeated vital sign measurements with a 30-min interval during the first 3 h of ED admission

From: Repeated vital sign measurements in the emergency department predict patient deterioration within 72 hours: a prospective observational study

		Sig.	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	Model statistics
		Sig.	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	Cox & Snell R²	AUC (95% CI)	N ^a
Base model for deterioration within 72 h from admission				.080	.679 (.619; .739)	359 (100%)
Age		.012*	1.022 (1.005; 1.039)
Gender (0 = male, 1 = female)		.502	0.839 (0.502; 1.402)
Cardiac disease		.158	1.544 (0.845; 2.820)
COPD		.159	1.906 (0.777; 4.676)
Diabetes		.035*	1.902 (1.048; 3.454)
Chronic kidney disease		.308	1.475 (0.699; 3.111)
Chronic liver disease		.345	1.493 (0.650; 3.429)
Organ transplant		.245	1.408 (0.791; 2.509)
Malignancy		.450	0.807 (0.463; 1.407)
Base model with heart rate
HR-M1.	Heart rate at admission	.042*	1.013 (1.000; 1.025)	.091	.683 (.623; .742)	359 (100%)
HR-M2.	Heart rate at admission	.035*	1.015 (1.001; 1.030)	.091	.684 (.624; .743)	358 (99.7%)
HR-M2.	Heart rate change	.463	1.039 (0.938; 1.151)
HR-M3.	Heart rate at admission	.062	1.013 (0.999; 1.027)	.091	.683 (.624; .743)	359 (100%)
HR-M3.	Heart rate variability	.884	0.998 (0.977; 1.021)
Base model with mean arterial pressure
MAP-M1.	MAP at admission	<.001*	0.955 (0.937; 0.972)	.156	.746 (.688; .804)	357 (99.4%)
MAP-M2.	MAP at admission	<.001*	0.940 (0.920; 0.961)	.176	.758 (.701; .815)	355 (98.9%)
MAP-M2.	MAP change	.003*	0.873 (0.798; 0.954)
MAP-M3.	MAP at admission	<.001*	0.941 (0.922; 0.960)	.223	.800 (.750; .850)	357 (99.4%)
MAP-M3.	MAP variability	<.001*	1.060 (1.037; 1.084)
Base model with respiratory rate
RR-M1.	Respiratory rate at admission	.042*	1.048 (1.002; 1.097)	.075	.663 (.592; .735) ^b	267 (74.4%)
RR-M2.	Respiratory rate at admission	.004*	1.086 (1.027; 1.148)	.096	.686 (.617; .755) ^b	242 (67.4%)
RR-M2.	Respiratory rate change	.018*	1.441 (1.063; 1.952)
RR-M3.	Respiratory rate at admission	.144	1.022 (0.988; 1.071)	.087	.676 (.605; .746) ^b	267 (74.4%)
RR-M3.	Respiratory rate variability	.063	1.067 (0.996; 1.142)
Base model with body temperature
BT-M1.	Body temperature at admission	.607	1.059 (0.845; 1.319)	.083	.680 (.619; .741)	355 (98.9%)
BT-M2.	Body temperature at admission	.880	1.020 (0.786; 1.324)	.080	.681 (.619; .743)	342 (95.3%)
BT-M2.	Body temperature change	.677	0.720 (0.153; 3.385)
BT-M3.	Body temperature at admission	.962	0.994 (0.790; 1.252)	.090	.683 (.622; .745)	355 (98.9%)
BT-M3.	Body temperature variability	.097	1.389 (0.942; 2.049)

AUC: area under the receiver operating curve; CI: confidence interval; COPD: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; HR: Heart rate, MAP: mean arterial pressure; RR: respiratory rate; BT: body temperature; Sig.: statistical significance; * significant result (p < 0.05)
^aMissing or observations that were constant within the measured time period are excluded from the regression model; ^b the AUC of the base model only including patients with respiratory rate at admission was .638

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