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Table 5 The ROC analysis results of the continuous variables

From: Validity of modified early warning, Glasgow Blatchford, and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores in predicting prognosis of patients presenting to emergency department with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

  Cut off AUC (p value) Sensitivity [95 % CI] Specifity [95 % CI] PPV [95 % CI] NPV [95 % CI] LR+ [95 % CI] LR- [95 % CI]
Bleeding at follow-up GBS >11 0.613 (0.0237) 70.59 [52.5–84.9] 51.19 [43.4–59.0] 22.64 [15.1–31.8] 89.58 [81.7–94.9] 1.45 [1.1–1.9] 0.57 [0.3–1.0]
MEWS >4 0.500 (1.000) 14.71 [5.0–31.1] 94.05 [89.3–97.1] 33.33 [11.8–61.6] 84.49 [78.5–89.4] 2.47 [0.9–6.8] 0.91 [0.8–1.0]
PER >4 0.600 (0.0550) 44.12 [27.2–61.1] 76.19 [69.0–82.4] 27.27 [16.1–41.0] 87.07 [80.6–92.0] 1.85 [1.2–3.0] 0.73 [0.5–1.0]
Endoscopic therapy GBS >5 0.514 (0.7501) 94.64 [85.1–98.9] 10.49 [6–16.7] 29.28 [22.8–36.5] 83.33 [58.6–96.4] 1.06 [1–1.1] 0.51 [0.2–1.7]
MEWS >1 0.508 (0.8623) 33.93 [21.8–47.8] 71.33 [63.2–78.6] 31.67 [20.3–45.0] 73.38 [65.2–80.5] 1.18 [0.8–1.9] 0.93 [0.7–1.1]
PER >3 0.577 (0.0769) 57.14 [43.2–70.3] 54.55 [46.0–62.9] 32.99 [23.8–43.3] 76.47 [67.0–84.3] 1.26 [0.9–1.7] 0.79 [0.6–1.1]
Need for blood transfusion GBS >10 0.829 (<0.0001) 79.45 [72.0–85.7] 76.79 [63.6–87.0] 89.92 [83.4–94.5] 58.90 [46.8–70.39 3.42 [2.1–5.6] 0.27 [0.2–0.4]
MEWS >1 0.584 (0.0470) 73.29 [65.3–80.3] 39.29 [26.5–53.2] 75.89 [68.0–82.7] 36.07 [24.2–49.4] 1.21 [1.0–1.5] 0.68 [0.4–1.0]
PER >3 0.642 (0.0014) 55.48 [47.0–63.7] 67.86 [54.0–79.7] 81.82 [72.8–88.9] 36.89 [27.6–47.0] 1.73 [1.1–2.6] 0.66 [0.5–0.8]
Death GBS >13 0.679 (0.0222) 63.64 [30.8–89.1] 72.77 [65.9–79.0] 11.86 [4.9–22.9] 97.20 [93.0–99.2] 2.34 [1.4–3.9] 0.50 [0.2–1.1]
MEWS >2 0.772 (<0.0001) 72.73 [39.0–94.0] 65.45 [58.2–72.2] 10.81 [4.8–20.2] 97.66 [93.3–99.5] 2.10 [1.4–3.2] 0.42 [0.2–1.1]
PER >3 0.767 (<0.0001) 90.91 [58.7–99.8] 53.40 [46.1–60.6] 10.10 [5.0–17.8] 99.03 [94.7–100.0] 1.95 [1.5–2.5] 0.17 [0.03–1.1]
Rebleeding GBS >12 0.663 (0.0073) 70.83 [48.9–87.4] 65.27 [57.5–72.5] 22.67 [13.8–33.8] 93.97 [88.0–97.5] 2.04 [1.5–2.8] 0.45 [0.2–0.8]
MEWS >2 0.617 (0.0638) 50.0 [29.1–70.9] 67.66 [60.0–74.7] 18.18 [9.8–29.6] 90.40 [83.8–94.9] 1.55 [1.0–2.4] 0.74 [0.5–1.1]
PER >3 0.832 (<0.0001) 95.83 [78.9–99.9] 60.48 [52.6–67.9] 25.84 [17.1–36.2] 99.02 [94.7–100.0] 2.42 [2.0–3.0] 0.07 [0.01–0.5]
  1. the “Bold numbers” p<0.05. Abbreviations: GBS Glasgow Blatchford score, MEWS Modified early warning score, PER pre-endoscopic rockall, ROC receiver operator characteristic, AUC receiver operating characteristic curve, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, LR likelihood ratio, CI confidence intervals