| |
Cut off
|
AUC (p value)
|
Sensitivity [95 % CI]
|
Specifity [95 % CI]
|
PPV [95 % CI]
|
NPV [95 % CI]
|
LR+ [95 % CI]
|
LR- [95 % CI]
|
|---|
|
Bleeding at follow-up
|
GBS
|
>11
|
0.613 (0.0237)
|
70.59 [52.5–84.9]
|
51.19 [43.4–59.0]
|
22.64 [15.1–31.8]
|
89.58 [81.7–94.9]
|
1.45 [1.1–1.9]
|
0.57 [0.3–1.0]
|
|
MEWS
|
>4
|
0.500 (1.000)
|
14.71 [5.0–31.1]
|
94.05 [89.3–97.1]
|
33.33 [11.8–61.6]
|
84.49 [78.5–89.4]
|
2.47 [0.9–6.8]
|
0.91 [0.8–1.0]
|
|
PER
|
>4
|
0.600 (0.0550)
|
44.12 [27.2–61.1]
|
76.19 [69.0–82.4]
|
27.27 [16.1–41.0]
|
87.07 [80.6–92.0]
|
1.85 [1.2–3.0]
|
0.73 [0.5–1.0]
|
|
Endoscopic therapy
|
GBS
|
>5
|
0.514 (0.7501)
|
94.64 [85.1–98.9]
|
10.49 [6–16.7]
|
29.28 [22.8–36.5]
|
83.33 [58.6–96.4]
|
1.06 [1–1.1]
|
0.51 [0.2–1.7]
|
|
MEWS
|
>1
|
0.508 (0.8623)
|
33.93 [21.8–47.8]
|
71.33 [63.2–78.6]
|
31.67 [20.3–45.0]
|
73.38 [65.2–80.5]
|
1.18 [0.8–1.9]
|
0.93 [0.7–1.1]
|
|
PER
|
>3
|
0.577 (0.0769)
|
57.14 [43.2–70.3]
|
54.55 [46.0–62.9]
|
32.99 [23.8–43.3]
|
76.47 [67.0–84.3]
|
1.26 [0.9–1.7]
|
0.79 [0.6–1.1]
|
|
Need for blood transfusion
|
GBS
|
>10
|
0.829 (<0.0001)
|
79.45 [72.0–85.7]
|
76.79 [63.6–87.0]
|
89.92 [83.4–94.5]
|
58.90 [46.8–70.39
|
3.42 [2.1–5.6]
|
0.27 [0.2–0.4]
|
|
MEWS
|
>1
|
0.584 (0.0470)
|
73.29 [65.3–80.3]
|
39.29 [26.5–53.2]
|
75.89 [68.0–82.7]
|
36.07 [24.2–49.4]
|
1.21 [1.0–1.5]
|
0.68 [0.4–1.0]
|
|
PER
|
>3
|
0.642 (0.0014)
|
55.48 [47.0–63.7]
|
67.86 [54.0–79.7]
|
81.82 [72.8–88.9]
|
36.89 [27.6–47.0]
|
1.73 [1.1–2.6]
|
0.66 [0.5–0.8]
|
|
Death
|
GBS
|
>13
|
0.679 (0.0222)
|
63.64 [30.8–89.1]
|
72.77 [65.9–79.0]
|
11.86 [4.9–22.9]
|
97.20 [93.0–99.2]
|
2.34 [1.4–3.9]
|
0.50 [0.2–1.1]
|
|
MEWS
|
>2
|
0.772 (<0.0001)
|
72.73 [39.0–94.0]
|
65.45 [58.2–72.2]
|
10.81 [4.8–20.2]
|
97.66 [93.3–99.5]
|
2.10 [1.4–3.2]
|
0.42 [0.2–1.1]
|
|
PER
|
>3
|
0.767 (<0.0001)
|
90.91 [58.7–99.8]
|
53.40 [46.1–60.6]
|
10.10 [5.0–17.8]
|
99.03 [94.7–100.0]
|
1.95 [1.5–2.5]
|
0.17 [0.03–1.1]
|
|
Rebleeding
|
GBS
|
>12
|
0.663 (0.0073)
|
70.83 [48.9–87.4]
|
65.27 [57.5–72.5]
|
22.67 [13.8–33.8]
|
93.97 [88.0–97.5]
|
2.04 [1.5–2.8]
|
0.45 [0.2–0.8]
|
|
MEWS
|
>2
|
0.617 (0.0638)
|
50.0 [29.1–70.9]
|
67.66 [60.0–74.7]
|
18.18 [9.8–29.6]
|
90.40 [83.8–94.9]
|
1.55 [1.0–2.4]
|
0.74 [0.5–1.1]
|
|
PER
|
>3
|
0.832 (<0.0001)
|
95.83 [78.9–99.9]
|
60.48 [52.6–67.9]
|
25.84 [17.1–36.2]
|
99.02 [94.7–100.0]
|
2.42 [2.0–3.0]
|
0.07 [0.01–0.5]
|
-
the “Bold numbers” p<0.05. Abbreviations: GBS Glasgow Blatchford score, MEWS Modified early warning score, PER pre-endoscopic rockall, ROC receiver operator characteristic, AUC receiver operating characteristic curve, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, LR likelihood ratio, CI confidence intervals
