A retrospective analysis of geriatric trauma patients: venous lactate is a better predictor of mortality than traditional vital signs

Table 3 Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis: Predictors of in-hospital mortality

Variable	Odds ratio	95% CI	P value
Model 1: Lactate (r²=0.29; H-L=0.87)
VL ≥ 2.5 mM	2.62	1.49 – 4.58	< 0.001
Glasgow coma scale 3-12	11.49	6.20 – 21.30	< 0.001
Injury severity score ≥ 16	3.40	1.86 – 6.21	< 0.001
Age ≥ 85 years	2.10	1.17 – 3.77	0.01
Model 2: Occult hypoperfusion* (r²=0.28; H-L=0.55)
Occult hypoperfusion*	2.12	1.20 – 3.77	0.01
Glasgow coma scale 3-12	12.28	6.63 – 22.74	< 0.001
Injury severity score ≥ 16	3.47	1.90 – 6.36	< 0.001
Age ≥ 85 years	2.02	1.13 – 3.61	0.02
Model 2: TVS (r²=0.28; H-L=0.77)
Abnormal TVS†	1.71	0.74 – 3.93	0.21
Glasgow coma scale 3-12	14.97	8.52 – 26.29	< 0.001
Injury severity score ≥ 16	3.88	2.23 - 6.76	< 0.001
Age ≥ 85 years	1.92	1.11 – 3.32	0.02
Model 3: Shock index (r²=0.27; H-L=0.69)
Shock index ≥ 1	1.18	0.39 – 3.58	0.78
Glasgow coma scale 3-12	15.38	8.69 – 27.23	< 0.001
Injury severity score ≥ 16	3.86	2.19 – 6.81	< 0.001
Age ≥ 85 years	1.85	1.07 – 3.22	0.03
Model 4: Lactate and TVS (r²=0.29; H-L=0.72)
VL ≥ 2.5 mM	2.58	1.47 – 4.52	< 0.001
Abnormal TVS†	1.46	0.62 - 3.47	0.39
Glasgow coma scale 3-12	11.23	6.06 – 20.83	< 0.001
Injury severity score ≥ 16	3.36	1.84 - 6.13	< 0.001
Age ≥ 85 years	2.14	1.19 – 3.84	0.01

Stepwise logistic regression, with entry and exit values set at p < 0.15 for all models.
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; VL, venous lactate; TVS, traditional vital signs; H-L, hosmer-lemeshow goodness of fit statistic.
*Occult hypoperfusion: VL ≥ 2.5 mM with normal TVS.
†Abnormal TVS: Systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg and/or heart rate > 120 beats/min.

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